Averting Collapse: How Colorado River Management Is Evolving to Meet a Drier Future
Answering NRDC’s Concerns about the Colorado River—Part 3 of 3
Securing a resilient Colorado River system is critical to the long-term viability of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Serving nearly 40 million people and 5.5 million acres of irrigated farmland, the river also supports ecosystems, hydropower, and recreation. But management of this water supply faces challenges.
According to Reclamation’s 2012 Water Supply and Demand Study, population growth in the Basin could range from 25% to over 90% by 2060. This growth could drive annual water demand increases of 3 to 5 MAF. The report also models climate change impacts, projecting a drier region with more frequent and severe droughts, and some projections show the river’s yield dropping by as much as 20%.
Dry hydrology is not just a future condition that shows up in some planning scenarios. It is already happening. Since 2000, hydrology has been at unprecedented dry levels. According to Reclamation’s 2024 Record of Decision, which was prepared for the Supplement to the Interim Guidelines, the 23-year period from 2000 to 2022 was the driest in over 100 years and among the driest in the last 1,200 years.
Just after the DCPs were adopted, Reclamation began work on the post-2026 process. A report detailing the alternatives that were developed for analysis under the NEPA process was released in January, and the draft EIS is expected soon. (For discussion of the post-2026 alternatives, see Water Strategist, “Colorado River Post-2026 Operational Guidelines Alternatives Provide Panoply of Criteria for Analysis”).
Despite ongoing efforts to develop future management protocols, worsening drought conditions and declining reservoir levels demanded immediate action. In 2022, persistent drought conditions and reservoir elevations were at levels that prompted notice from Reclamation that the Basin States and Mexico would need to conserve an additional 2 MAF to 4 MAF beyond the levels specified in the DCP to avert an imminent crisis. Both Lake Powell and Lake Mead elevations had dropped dangerously close to the levels in which they would no longer be able to generate power.
In response, Reclamation—working with the Basin States—revised near-term operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead. These adjustments secured nearly 3 MAF in system conservation through 2026. In corresponding treaty minute, Minute 330, the Mexican government committed to generating 400,000 AF above the levels specified in Minute 323 for the Colorado River system and Mexico’s Water Reserve, and the United States committed to providing $65 million in funding for conservation projects in Mexico. Fortunately, 2023 brought more favorable hydrology. The immediate crisis was averted.
Rodney T. Smith contends that the crisis was foreseeable, given the long-term trend toward 14.3 MAF in natural flows. He advocates for aligning management protocols with actual hydrology, preserving the Law of the River, and enabling water markets to improve flexibility and risk response. (See “The Colorado River in Disarray,” Hydrowonk Blog August 19, 2022).
The Colorado River’s future hinges not just on technical fixes or temporary conservation gains, but on a fundamental shift in how we plan for scarcity, manage risk, and allocate responsibility. The hydrologic realities—now unmistakably drier and more volatile—demand that water managers move beyond 20th-century assumptions and embrace a framework grounded in actual flows, flexible operations, and market-based tools. Recognizing 14.3 MAF as the long-term average is not merely a statistical adjustment; it’s a strategic imperative.
As the post-2026 process unfolds, the challenge is not whether we can agree on a new set of guidelines—it is whether we can build a durable governance model that reflects ecological limits, legal obligations, and the realities of drought. The work ahead will test institutional resilience, political will, and our collective capacity to adapt. But it also offers a rare opportunity: to reimagine Colorado River management for a future that is not only sustainable, but equitable and resilient.
Read Part 1: Are Colorado River Water Supplies Being Wasted?
Read Part 2: Shortages and Cutbacks—Nearly Two Decades of Colorado River Management History